Individual Game Analysis
1 Game Profile
1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG
This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.
Published | ID | Name | Type | UserRatings | Average | GeekRating | Weight |
2021 | Current | 112 | 8.02 | 5.65 | 4.00 | ||
Estimated | 200 | 8.40 | 5.79 | 3.34 |
To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.
1.2 Game Description
Description |
Procyon is a star 11 light-years from Earth, visible in our skies as the brightest star in the Canis Minor constellation. Since the system contains the remains of a collapsed star it was bound to be rich in heavy elements, ripe for industrialization. It was thus no surprise, that in 2104 this was one of the first extrasolar systems to be colonized. The surprise came 3 years later, when an ancient artefact belonging to a clearly alien civilization was discovered under the settlement. The observatories picked up the unmistakable tachyon radiation of a fleet slowing down from faster-than-light approaching the system - preparing for the worst case scenario, the UN dispatched its entire Armada to relieve the minimal defenses the settlement holds, while their scientists worked hard to decipher the alien communications, and understand their newfound enemy whose name was revealed to be the Aethyn. |
1.3 Game Information
Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.
Published | ID | Name | Publisher(s) | Designer(s) | Artist(s) | Categories | Families | Mechanics |
2021 | PSC Games | Dávid Turczi | Jakub Politzer | Miniatures | Crowdfunding: Kickstarter | Grid Movement | ||
Taverna Ludica Games | Science Fiction | Hand Management | ||||||
Wargame | Point to Point Movement | |||||||
Simulation | ||||||||
Team-Based Game | ||||||||
Variable Player Powers | ||||||||
For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/267244
1.4 Explaining Predictions
For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.
2 Finding Similar Games
What games are similar to The Defence of Procyon III? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Defence of Procyon III. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.
This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).
Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.
2.1 Most Similar Games
The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Defence of Procyon III. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2021 | 1.00 | 5.65 | 8.02 | 3.34 | 112 | ||
1 | 2007 | 0.85 | 6.59 | 7.21 | 3.46 | 3,790 | ||
2 | 2017 | 0.83 | 5.86 | 7.59 | 3.47 | 408 | ||
3 | 2019 | 0.81 | 5.64 | 8.95 | 4.00 | 87 | ||
4 | 2010 | 0.80 | 6.55 | 7.25 | 3.22 | 2,902 | ||
5 | 2009 | 0.80 | 6.78 | 7.39 | 3.55 | 4,071 | ||
6 | 2015 | 0.80 | 5.74 | 6.83 | 3.08 | 509 | ||
7 | 2016 | 0.79 | 5.59 | 8.08 | 4.67 | 69 | ||
8 | 2013 | 0.79 | 7.16 | 7.71 | 2.70 | 5,992 | ||
9 | 2009 | 0.79 | 6.57 | 7.14 | 3.68 | 3,423 | ||
10 | 2003 | 0.79 | 5.82 | 6.12 | 2.76 | 2,651 | ||
11 | 2019 | 0.79 | 5.58 | 7.61 | 3.12 | 85 | ||
12 | 1993 | 0.78 | 6.01 | 7.02 | 2.23 | 1,055 | ||
13 | 2006 | 0.78 | 5.98 | 6.38 | 3.07 | 2,447 | ||
14 | 2013 | 0.78 | 5.54 | 7.87 | 3.33 | 42 | ||
15 | 2012 | 0.78 | 5.64 | 7.16 | 2.31 | 195 | ||
16 | 1979 | 0.77 | 5.67 | 6.89 | 2.70 | 299 | ||
17 | 2008 | 0.76 | 5.52 | 6.56 | 2.67 | 35 | ||
18 | 2011 | 0.76 | 5.73 | 7.67 | 2.59 | 243 | ||
19 | 2006 | 0.76 | 5.52 | 6.98 | 2.17 | 45 | ||
20 | 2018 | 0.76 | 5.65 | 8.87 | 3.14 | 88 | ||
21 | 2019 | 0.75 | 5.65 | 7.63 | 2.62 | 194 | ||
22 | 2011 | 0.75 | 5.53 | 7.12 | 3.20 | 39 | ||
23 | 2010 | 0.75 | 5.73 | 7.30 | 3.67 | 303 | ||
24 | 2017 | 0.75 | 5.65 | 7.81 | 3.25 | 125 | ||
25 | 2017 | 0.75 | 5.54 | 7.70 | 33 |
Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.
2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games
What games are similar to The Defence of Procyon III while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Score | Similarity | GeekRating | Average | Weight | UserRatings |
-- | 2021 | 5.65 | 1.00 | 5.65 | 8.02 | 3.34 | 112 | ||
1 | 2013 | 5.66 | 0.79 | 7.16 | 7.71 | 2.70 | 5,992 | ||
2 | 2007 | 5.61 | 0.85 | 6.59 | 7.21 | 3.46 | 3,790 | ||
3 | 2009 | 5.43 | 0.80 | 6.78 | 7.39 | 3.55 | 4,071 | ||
4 | 2010 | 5.25 | 0.80 | 6.55 | 7.25 | 3.22 | 2,902 | ||
5 | 2009 | 5.20 | 0.79 | 6.57 | 7.14 | 3.68 | 3,423 | ||
6 | 2006 | 5.13 | 0.73 | 7.00 | 7.36 | 2.77 | 9,183 | ||
7 | 2006 | 5.06 | 0.69 | 7.33 | 7.95 | 3.25 | 5,648 | ||
8 | 2010 | 4.92 | 0.70 | 7.00 | 8.01 | 2.74 | 2,857 | ||
9 | 2017 | 4.89 | 0.83 | 5.86 | 7.59 | 3.47 | 408 | ||
10 | 2018 | 4.83 | 0.72 | 6.68 | 7.81 | 4.33 | 2,062 | ||
11 | 2004 | 4.81 | 0.75 | 6.43 | 6.86 | 2.91 | 5,117 | ||
12 | 2016 | 4.76 | 0.75 | 6.37 | 7.45 | 2.98 | 1,805 | ||
13 | 2016 | 4.75 | 0.69 | 6.84 | 7.81 | 3.13 | 2,927 | ||
14 | 1990 | 4.74 | 0.75 | 6.35 | 7.03 | 2.29 | 2,848 | ||
15 | 2015 | 4.71 | 0.69 | 6.81 | 7.22 | 2.38 | 6,002 | ||
16 | 2005 | 4.70 | 0.75 | 6.29 | 8.09 | 3.92 | 854 | ||
17 | 2012 | Conflict of Heroes: Awakening the Bear! – Operation Barbarossa 1941 (Second Edition) | 4.70 | 0.70 | 6.68 | 7.95 | 3.26 | 1,790 | |
18 | 1993 | 4.69 | 0.78 | 6.01 | 7.02 | 2.23 | 1,055 | ||
19 | 2006 | 4.67 | 0.78 | 5.98 | 6.38 | 3.07 | 2,447 | ||
20 | 2008 | 4.66 | 0.71 | 6.52 | 7.29 | 2.11 | 2,383 | ||
21 | 2017 | 4.65 | 0.70 | 6.66 | 7.38 | 2.94 | 3,101 | ||
22 | 2013 | 4.62 | 0.74 | 6.24 | 7.41 | 3.41 | 1,198 | ||
23 | 2003 | 4.59 | 0.79 | 5.82 | 6.12 | 2.76 | 2,651 | ||
24 | 2019 | 4.59 | 0.81 | 5.64 | 8.95 | 4.00 | 87 | ||
25 | 2018 | 4.59 | 0.75 | 6.13 | 7.76 | 2.93 | 857 |
2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?
I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.
2.3.1 Plotting All Games
The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.
2.3.2 Game Profiles
Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.
2.3.3 Examining Components
What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.
